We interrupt this relenetless optmism for a reminder that the old is dying and the new is struggling to be born
And sometimes things go horribly wrong
This is just me taking a beat from developing a basically positive account of what it will mean to move past the dominance of the two-party system of Australian politics and remind myself that we live in unpredictable times; that the received wisdom—even the received marginal wisdom—of the current paradigm has no particular guarantee attached it.
Let me first remind you of a piece by Osmond Chiu, Research Fellow at the Per Capita thinktank, which I published in 2023 and that sets out a very plausible scenario in which Peter Dutton sneaks the L/NP back into power through the manipulation of minority government.
Why a minority-Labor government is Peter Dutton's best path back to power
The fallout after the Voice referendum has heightened dissatisfaction with the Albanese Labor Government that has been building for some time, and it has been intensified by a torrid month of global and domestic politics. The recent Newspoll that indicated a tied 2PP
In that piece, Chiu notes that Newspoll had already moved to 50/50 2PP, a figure that has consistently shifted in favour of the L/NP ever since. This past Sunday, Newspoll sat at 51/49 against Labor. Even more concerning from a non-Coalition point of view was the publ…
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