Coalition of the unwilling

Senator Paterson's sneer to run as an independent

I don’t think we really understand how the Australian political landscape is changing, but the dissolution of the Coalition—with the National Party officially splitting from the Liberals—is our latest reminder that we need to start thinking about our politics differently.

Here’s a few quick thoughts on what ails us. Or, rather, them.

What ails Australian politics? Detail from a French miniature depicting scenes of medical consultation, including a physician examining a urine flask (top right), ca. 1300–1325 — Source.

The short version—with cause and effect suitably interchangeable—is this: over the last forty-odd years, as technological changes have affected work and communication, the underlying logic of the two-party system has fundamentally evaporated. As society has organised itself around different axes, ones adjacent to the traditional one of capital versus labour, voters have drifted from the two-party system built on that logic. In the last ten years, communities have become more organised in developing alternatives to the major parties, and in 2022, and again in 2025, what had been a gradual transformation has become more urgent.

The archive is full of various discussions of this, but this article and this one might be of particular interest.

Under such circumstances, the death of the Coalition is about as unexpected as Trump lying. It is an event both monumental and minor, an inevitable outcome of matters that have been in train for a long time, the dotting on an i on a document written long ago. It matters because so much of our discourse—not to mention our institutions—are organised around the presence of this coalition. Its absence will have to be dealt with.

Many are arguing that it opens up the possibility for a conservative reinvention, but the trouble for the now-unencumbered Liberal Party is that the fissure that split the Coalition also runs through their party room. So, nothing is really settled. Any rebirth is likely to be stillborn and I suspect the gap will be filled, not by some reconstituted version of the party of Menzies—or even of Howard—but by the far right, as I argued a few weeks back.

Saying all this doesn’t foreclose on the idea that the Coalition may reform at some point, maybe even before the next election; only that such a re-formation is unlikely to change anything or advance their cause.

Labor’s impressive majority in the current parliament is important in a number of ways, not least because it tends to mask the ongoing and underlying shift away from the major parties that is still likely to be the engine of electoral transformation in the years ahead. The all-but disappearance of the Greens from the lower house—while increasing their power in the upper house—is also confounding.

The Greens’ like to say that their overall vote held, but it is more complicated than that. They lost millennials and gained Gen Z: more prosaically, they lost voters in their late thirties/early forties and gained those in their twenties. That’s not a formula for growth.

Just as interesting is some data turned up by Ben Raue in one of his incredibly useful examinations of voting booths in various electorates. (As Osman Faruqi said on BlueSky the other day, “There is more interesting analysis in …Ben’s posts…than anything else in the media.”)

Raue notes that across mid-suburban Sydney, the Greens vote shifted in meaningful ways:

…I am particularly interested in the big increase in the Greens vote near where I live in central Parramatta – some of the booths in my area had Greens primary votes of 18-21%, with swings of 4-6%. The Greens gained swings in almost all of Reid and Parramatta, and also gained substantial swings in the new bits of Bennelong where they are no longer competing with a teal. But in the Ryde area the Greens went backwards in many booths.

…I also included a Greens vote map because it is quite interesting how they appear to be picking up support outside of their heartland. The Greens did suffer small swings in the strongest areas for Basyouny and Ouf, but otherwise picked up support across both seats. In particular they gained swings of 4% and 7% in central Bankstown and 8% in Guildford. They also did well in Lakemba and Wiley Park, polling well over 10%.

I have argued before that one of the weaknesses in Greens’ politics is their failure to gain support outside the inner cities, but these figures show some hope in that regard. The figures also undermine calls by genius commentators that the Greens need to narrow their focus to the environment. That is unlikely to be useful advice.

Anyway, we will all watch with interest, and alarm, as the now-severed Coalition tries to reinvent itself, and with the same emotions to see if Labor—freer to pursue genuine reform than any Labor government in history—actually does that.

============================================================================

Just adding: Wouldn’t it be nice if our new political landscape included more opportunities for ordinary to voters to, not just speak, but to be heard?

To this end, I have been a long-time advocate of citizens’ assemblies and will be involving myself as much as I can in attempts to normalise and empower such practices within the new political landscape.

To that end, I was asked to speak at an upcoming event in South Australia. Unfortunately, some family commitments mean I won’t be able to attend, but I thought some subscribers might be interested in getting along.

The event is being run by former journalist, Peter Martin, as part of Citizen Assemblies for South Australia. Details of the events, as well as information about registering to attend, are available here.

It will be a really worthwhile gathering and discussion.

---